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HOLT VS. WELKER by Scott Sokol
20 May 2008
  VS 
by Scott Sokol Pts: 345.90 Pts: 394.90
Ht: 6'0" Ht: 5'9"
Wt: 190 Wt: 185
At first glance, this seems like an odd pair – one of the league’s best dink-and-dunk receivers paired with a stud number one wideout. Look closer and you’ll find that their fantasy numbers in 2007 were remarkably similar. Welker pulled down 19 more balls, but Holt had 14 more receiving yards. Each fumbled twice on the year, and Welker had four carries for 34 rushing yards; Holt didn’t run the ball in ’07.
While “Big Game” Torry Holt plays the role of the big target for the Rams, he’s actually not that big – standing just a shade under six feet, weighing in at 190 pounds. That puts him not too far off Welker’s 5’9 – 185. Welker drew lots of comparison to Brandon Stokley’s 2004 season with the Colts, but if you really look at the numbers, they’re hardly similar. That year Stokley did have over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs. Sure, under all their pads he and Welker do resemble each other, but Stokley did his work primarily with deep routes. He averaged an eye-popping 15.8 yards per catch including one for 69 yards. Stokley had six games with at least 97 yards, and eight with less than 60. Welker’s work last year was equally inconsistent – and that is worth mentioning as a possible cause for worry when drafting Wes in leagues for ’08.
Look a little closer and you’ll find that with the exception of the top four or five receivers in the NFL, every one of them bounces up and down just like Welker.
Sidestepping Welker for a moment, here’s an interesting note about Torry Holt’s season in the Rams’ anemic offense. Three of his top six games came when Marc Bulger was not under center. Don’t take that stat to heart because those three games came against the Cardinals, Bengals, and Falcons – three defenses that had a tough time stopping anybody last year.
So Welker and Holt both had odd seasons, each seeing its hot and cold streaks, so what can you expect for next year?
REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS
Welker went over 70 yards just once in the first five weeks, but he did it seven times in the last eleven, and also scored seven of his eight touchdowns. That means once the league wised up to the deadly Brady-Moss tandem, Welker began getting his. The Patriots offense should be unstoppable again this year and that means good things for Welker.
In Holt’s favor is the Rams offense getting healthy. He did just as well as Welker with a banged up Marc Bulger, a gimpy Steven Jackson, and no Orlando Pace. The return of all three could mean a renaissance season for Holt, who will still be just 32 in June.
KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS
Expecting a great year from Holt is one thing, but expecting him to string together three or four is asking a little much. Even the great Marvin Harrison wore down at 34 last year, and given a bothersome knee injury that seems to not be going anywhere, banking on him for more than one or two more good years is really asking a lot.
Welker on the other hand, is 27 and in New England for the next five years. The Brady-Moss-Welker trio will keep tormenting opposing secondaries for the foreseeable future and that makes Welker an excellent grab in keeper leagues.
SITUATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
Based on Fantasy Football Trader’s Passing S.O.S. rankings for the 2008 season, the Patriots have the third toughest passing schedule to go up against, while the Rams is the 11th weakest. Obviously these numbers are prone to change year to year, and all those teams the Patriots play will probably see a spike in their passing yards allowed just because they play the Pats.
A bigger deal is that the Rams play a schedule of relatively weak or at best middle of the road defenses. Steven Jackson could run wild opening things up for some Bulger to Holt bombs.
BOTTOM LINE
Both receivers are still in their prime, but Holt is on the back end while Welker is just entering his. If the team stays healthy, the Rams could bring back The Greatest Show on Turf sans new 49er Isaac Bruce, but over the long haul Welker looks to net over 1,000 yards for many more years.
REDRAFT EDGE - Holt
+++++
KEEPER/DYNASTY EDGE - Welker
+++++
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