VS    
by Jon Rascon               PALMER                                CUTLER
                                       '08 FFT QB RANK: 5               '08 FFT QB RANK: 12
                                       Ht: 6'5"                                   Ht:  6'3"
                                       Wt: 230 lbs                             Wt: 233 lbs

The upset.  Everyone loves them. In basketball, there was NC State shocking Houston to win the National Championship.  In baseball, there was Kirk Gibson and the Dodgers turning back Dennis Eckersley and the Oakland A's.  Boxing had Buster Douglas dropping Mike Tyson. And this past year in football, the Giants shook up the world with their upset of the mighty Patriots.  In fantasy football, might we have that type of upset with determining who the better fantasy QB between elite Fantasy QB Carson Palmer and pedestrian QB (thus far) Jay Cutler? At first glance, Palmer v Cutler would be a no-brainer, a "LOCK" if you will.  But just as 1980 US Hockey team will attest to, upsets do happen.  So let's take a look and see if there is any chance of that here.

REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS

Carson Palmer must be breathing a sigh of relief with the news that Chad Johnson will report to camp.  Having Johnson in camp and on the field will allow Palmer to have maximum talent on the field. The Bengals still have a question at the RB spot, but provided that either Rudi Johnson bounces back or Kenny Watson can step up, the Bengals should be back to the usual offensive prowness.  However, this is a situation worth keeping an eye on, because if Chad Johnson comes back to create another hostile environment, don't be surprised to see Coach Lewis tell Chad Johnson to go home, much like the Bucs did a few years ago with Keyshawn Johnson.

Jay Cutler, on the other hand, looks to be starting over in many ways.  He lost starting WR Javon Walker and recently lost rb Travis Henry.  In their places, the Broncos will likely rely, at least to start, on Darrell Jackson and Selvin Young.  While neither is superstar material, they can both be serviceable players.  On the flip side, Cutler developed a great rapport last season with WR Brandon Marshall, and that rapport should continue to grow this year.

Provided Chad Johnson plays, give a slight nod to Palmer here.

KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS

In dynasty leagues, Palmer would also appear to be the pick. He will only be 29 this year, which for quarterbacks, generally means he has at least 3-4 more solid, productive years ahead of him.  He is also playing with 2 bona fide elite WRs in Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh.  Palmer has produced in the past, averaging 4000 yards and 28 touchdowns the past three seasons. There's alot to like about Palmer.  But is he the clear pick?  Looking at a couple other numbers, he cut down on the amount of sacks he took last year, from 36 to 17. That is yet another positive. But in the process of getting the ball out more quickly, he also increased his interceptions thrown for a third straight year, from 13 to 20.

But the biggest knock on Palmer is his inability to put the team on his back.  Even back in college, Palmer has struggled unless he has been surrounded by considerable talent. Here is just one example.  In 2001, as a junior as USC, he threw for 2567 with 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. As a senior, with freshman sensation Mike williams and Keary Colbert emerging, Palmer won the Heisman, throwing for 3942 yards with 33 tds and 10 ints. 

Last year, with the running game taking a hit (literally and figuratively), Palmer struggled when defenses were able to key in on him. I think with everything in flux in Bengal-land, Palmer is the one player who stands to hurt the worst.

This is why I now like Jay Cutler in keeper/dynasty leagues. Cutler has never had the talent that Palmer has enjoyed, but he has shown marked improvement each year at every level. In college, Cutler started as a freshman and threw for 1433 yards with 10 tds and 9 ints.  By the time he was a senior, he increased his numbers to 3073 yards with 21 tds and 9 ints.  And remember, that was at Vanderbilt in the SEC, where defense is taken seriously.  Cutler's leading WRs while at Vanderbilt? Dan Stricker, Erik Davis, Brandon Smith and Earl Bennett.  Not exactly superstars, although Bennett was drafted this year by the Bears.  But even Bennett, a freshman when Cutler was a senior, never enjoyed the same success he experienced after Cutler left Vanderbilt.

Cutler is now just starting to know what weapons are, as Brandon Marshall emerged and TE Tony Schleffer could be knocking on top 10 status this season as well.  All should continue to grow with Cutler, who will only be 25 this year.

Advantage to Cutler.

SITUATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

Jay Cutler was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes, and that is believed to be the reason why Cutler lost 20+ pounds during the last year. However, with careful planning, there is no medical evidence to show that his condition will impair his ability on the field.

Palmer will likely be drafted ahead of Cutler in almost every format, and the price of Palmer will also exceed that of Cutler. But in my single season rankings, you will notice that I have Cutler ranked #7, one spot behind Palmer, who I still think will have a productive year, especially if everyone on the Bengals can stay on the field.  But that just shows how much improvement I believe we will see in Cutler this year. 

In dynasty leagues, this is your last chance to get Cutler at a reasonable rate.  After this year, I have no doubts that he will be a consistent top 5 fantasy quarterback.

BOTTOM LINE

Upsets do happen in sports. Carson Palmer is a top 5-10 qb. He has been for a few years now.  However, most of his numbers has been accumulated because of who he was surrounded with.  Cutler, on the other hand, has accumulated his stats in spite of the talent he was surrounded with.  But now, his supporting cast is getting better (and yet to enter their primes, much like Cutler, who is 4 years younger than Palmer).  I think its a small coin flip in favor of Palmer for single season leagues, while Cutler is the pick in dynasty/keeper leagues.

REDRAFT EDGE:  Palmer
+++++
DYNASTY EDGE:  Cutler
+++++

 

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