VS    
by Jon Rascon              DeMeco Ryans                       Patrick WIllis
                            128 tackles                         174 tackles
                                       2 sacks                                4 sacks

"Whatever you can do, I can do better."  "I'm Tiger Woods... No, I'm Tiger Woods!"  "Pete and Repeat."  Any of these sayings could be applied to fellow linebackers Texan DeMeco Ryans and 49er Patrick Willis, who are two of the top fantasy scoring linebackers in the game today.  They both sharpened their teeth in the rugged SEC conference, Ryans at Alabama and Willis at Ole Miss.

In 2005, Ryans was named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year and was also a Butkus award finalist.  In 2006, while Ryans moved on to the NFL with immediate success, leading the NFL in tackles as a rookie en route to being named the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Willis took his turn being named SEC Defensive Player of the Year, as well as winning the Butkus Award. 

In 2007, guess who then led the NFL in tackles as a rookie? That's right, Patrick Willis duplicated what Ryans did the year before, winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in the process.

So here we are in 2008, and you have your choice between these two stud linebackers.  Which one do you choose?  Do you flip a coin? You could. But before you do, let's take a look at both linebackers and see if there just might be an answer that doesn't require straws or darts.

REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS

Patrick Willis was drafted #11 in the first round by the San Francisco 49ers in 2006 with the thought that Willis could be the guy that they would build their defense around.  But to say that the 49ers (or anyone for that matter) thought that Willis could make the immediate impact to the degree that Willis made in his rookie season should have been considered a slight exaggeration.  But all Willis did was come in last year as a rookie and promptly score more fantasy points than any other defensive player. The 49ers are still a team in transition on both offense and defense, but for fantasy purposes, that's great news for Willis owners, because that will ensure that Willis is on the field plenty and will have every opportunity to match his rookie season totals.

But if we were paying attention, we should have known that a rookie LB could make a impact statement of those proportions, because DeMeco Ryans did just that the year before. As a rookie, Ryans was the top point scorer in 2006.  Ryans slipped to 6th in points scored in 2007, but for the first 12 games, Ryans was neck and neck with Willis, before Willis blew up the last two weeks of the season to pull away.  The Texans are much further along in their progression towards becoming a playoff team than the 49ers are, and Ryans has some outstanding talent being placed around him, especially up front, as DE Mario Williams is on the cusp of becoming the top DE in fantasy football, and 21 year old Amobi Okoye is poised to become one of, if not THE, most dominant DT for years to come.  This talent will ensure Ryans has plenty of open angles to the ball carriers and his tackle totals should be consistently near the top of the league, this season included.

The slightest of all nods here goes to Willis, as the 49ers will continue to depend on Willis to be the guy to keep opponents from scoring on every other play while they bring in reinforcements for the future.

KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS

In dynasty leagues, either of these guys would be great centerpieces to build your defense around.  Both are young and have been relatively injury free throughout their careers.  At the present moment, Willis is the pick in single season leagues because the 49ers seem destined to be the lesser team, in terms of expectations and personnel they currently have for the upcoming season.  I've already covered the Texans bright future on the defensive side of the ball, but lets take a closer look at the talent that is being placed around Willis.

The 49ers brought in Justin Smith to help pressure the QB, but while Smith is a good effort guy, he lacks the elite-level burst off the ball or the closing speed necessary to consistently put pressure on the QB. I believe he was a stopgap DE signing for the next couple years until the 49ers can draft someone who can be a difference maker at DE.  DBs Nate Clements and SS Michael Lewis are solid players, but they aren't true elite DBs that can do it themselves.  They need help. 

And help appears to be something the 49ers seem intent on delivering.  They used a first round pick this year on NT Kentwan Balmer, who they hope will develop into a solid force on the inside, opening up lanes for Willis and company.  But that likely won't be happening for a year or two at least.  Manny Lawson appears to be a LB that the 49ers believe will develop into a solid contributor. But I think he may still be a year away from being able to reach his max potential.  But the 49ers are making moves that suggest that they want to surround Willis with the best possible talent they can.  It will just take time.

But what happens when the 49ers do surround Willis with that talent?  Because there is one key factor that I have not covered yet.  Over the past 3 years, over 75% of the top 10 fantasy point scoring linebackers have been 4-3 middle linebackers.  I do believe that a 3-4 defense gives the defensive coordinator more options to give the opposing offense different looks than a 4-3 does, but the fact remains that the 4-3 defense generally produces more consistent high scoring defensive players.

Last year, among the top 10 scoring LBs, only Willis and David Harris (Jets) were non 4-3 middle linebackers.  In 2006, Keith Bulluck (Titans) and Lance Briggs (Bears) were the only non 4-3 middle linebackers to crack the top 10 in fantasy production.  All things considered equal, the numbers suggest you have a greater probability of owning a top 5 LB if said linebacker is a 4-3 middle linebacker. 

Advantage to Ryans.

SITUATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

In redraft leagues, I'm seeing Patrick Willis being taken as the the #1 defensive player almost every time out (sometime in the late 6th-early 7th rd).  That's to be expected.  But DeMeco Ryans isn't being taken until on average at least a full round later, suggesting that Willis is being reached for and that some value exists in waiting for Ryans.

With no real difference in ADP for dynasty league drafting, the clear value appears to be with DeMeco Ryans in that realm, especially considering the fact that Ryans is a 4-3 MLB.

BOTTOM LINE

Patrick Willis and DeMeco Ryans both appear headed towards perennial All-Pro careers.  There careers have taken approximately the same path thus far, with both taking the same awards and leading the league in tackles their rookie seasons.  At the present moment, Willis seems to have an advantage over Ryans due to the fact that Ryans will have to share tackles with other outstanding defensive players on his team.  But numbers don't lie, and the numbers say that over the long haul, the 4-3 MLBs (Ryans) enjoy more consistent high level production than linebackers in a predominant 3-4 system (Willis).

Heads it is!

REDRAFT EDGE:  Willis
+++++

DYNASTY EDGE:  Ryans
+++++

 

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