VS.    
Johnson                               Houshmandzadeh
382.70 pts.                           411.20 pts.
Ht:  6'1"                                Ht. 6'1"
Wt: 192 lbs                           Wt: 199 lbs.

So given the matchup, you’re probably expecting me to say something like this:

"Chalk this one up as a classic case of one great receiver’s time to shine coming just as another’s is closing. Expect Housh to flourish just like Steve Smith with Muhsin Muhammad, Torry Holt with Isaac Bruce, and Reggie Wayne with Marvin Harrison."

Well, if that’s what you were expecting, keep reading.

This matchup goes a lot deeper. For starters, Johnson is actually 3 months younger than Houshmandzadeh, even though his breakout year came two years earlier. They were actually teammates at Oregon State before joining the Bengals in 2001, and until this year Chad has been the star all along.

This season was a different story. Johnson had almost 300 more yards on the season, but Houshmandzadeh had 19 more catches and four more touchdowns. More importantly, T.J. is going to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl in two weeks instead of Chad. In fantasy leagues, Houshmandzadeh dominated the matchup in touchdown heavy formats, but in leagues that value yards more, Chad might have been the better play.

The story the stats tell isn’t all you need to know. With only 10 yards a catch, compared to Johnson (15), stats will tell you that Houshmandzadeh established himself as a possession receiver. That is true for this year, but probably won’t be in the future.

Housh’s breakout in 2004 came as a speedy compliment to Chad Johnson. That year, both receivers averaged 13.4 yards per catch, and Housh’s 62-yard catch was the longest catch on the team that year.

One more variable to add into the equation is that in an interview with WSVN-TV Tuesday morning, Chad Johnson said, "Parcells, Call me." Sounds like Chad doesn’t want to be overshadowed by another receiver.

When it comes down to it, he shouldn’t have to feel that way. Chad Johnson has been an elite receiver in the NFL for the last 5 years – with at least 1,200 yards and 7 touchdowns every year. His 1,166 yards in 2002 are more than Housh has had any year of his career – including this year.

Touchdowns aren’t all luck, but if you’re expecting T.J. to repeat his TD total from 2007, you’re dreaming. Houshmandzadeh has never been covered as a Number One receiver, and even if Chad does get traded, that might hurt Housh more than it helps him.

REDRAFT CONSIDERATIONS:

2007 was an erratic year for Chad Johnson, with 5 games over 100 yards, but 4 with 60 yards or less. Whether he’s a Bengal or not, he is one of the very best receivers in the NFL and should be drafted right after Moss, T.O., and Reggie Wayne are off the board.

2007 was a career year for Houshmandzadeh. He has established himself in the upper echelon of wideouts – but don’t go so far as to thinking he’s one of the elite. Look for T.J.’s yards to stay about the same, but his receptions and touchdowns will probably take a slight hit.

KEEPER/DYNASTY CONSIDERATIONS:

As noted above, don’t be fooled by Houshmandzadeh’s late breakout season, he is not younger, and is not a better keeper than Chad Johnson.

BOTTOM LINE:

Redraft
+++++

Keeper/Dynasty 
+++++

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