By Robb Perkins

Bears Update 6-9:  According to Breaking News on NFL.com, Cedric Benson was waived this afternoon by the Chicago Bears - following a DUI arrest on Saturday night.  That shattering you hear right now is Matt Forte's redraft value!  Look for the Bears to sign another RB pre-camp, though Forte's career just switched onto the fast track.

Well, here we are in June.  The Free Agency carousel has begun dying down and we're post draft.  Every NFL team feels they have done everything they've needed to do (or at least, everything in their power) to head into battle with the stable of RB's they have on their roster.  So I figured it was high time to break down all 32 running games and see where we stand...

Arizona Cardinals

Edgerrin James is the clear cut starter but is past his prime and could lose some carries to either or both J.J. Arrington/Marcel Shipp.  Also don’t be shocked if the Cardinals turn to rookie Tim Hightower for short yardage and goal line situations.  Edge no longer a viable #1 and likely isn’t even a #2 RB except in large leagues.  Arrington and Shipp have little to no value at this time but Hightower could be a nice sleeper that will be had cheap if he does indeed garner some goal line carries ala Brandon Jacobs in his rookie campaign.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons spent big money to go out and get Michael Turner which allowed Warrick Dunn to flee to Tampa, it also tells me that they do not feel that Jerious Norwood is ready to be a full-time starter.  The Falcons have vowed to run, run, and run some more but the bottom line is we just don’t know just how Turner will perform, he will be a wildcard in this draft that could kill your fantasy team if you take him too high and he becomes a bust or he could be a steal that helps you win your league.  Norwood is a solid handcuff who has proved that he’s at least capable of busting off a long TD run here and there.  If Turner stumbles majorly or gets nicked up then Norwood’s stock of course will move up.  A deep sleeper is Jason Snelling who is a Turner injury away from possibly being the starter as his complete game may be even better than Norwood’s.

Baltimore Ravens

Willis McGahee is primed for a big year and is on the line between a low #1 and top #2 RB.  Mike Anderson and Musa Smith have both left town leaving rookie Ray Rice as McGahee’s back up which gives him instant handcuff value and automatic sleeper candidacy. 

Buffalo Bills

Marshawn Lynch put up over 1100 yards and 7 TD’s in his rookie season and is primed for a breakout season that could give him big time value once all the “big boys” are gone.  Fred Jackson showed some value as a backup but I’m not sold that he would be the go-to-guy if Lynch were to go down but he is the best handcuff available for Lynch and isn’t a horrible pick up in larger leagues.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have struggled to find a true running game since the days when Stephen Davis was still a star but the combination of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart could be just what the doctor ordered.  The problem is deciding which is going to offer the best fantasy statistics this season.  Williams is likely to be the immediate starter but Stewart should get his share of carries and could be the more valuable fantasy player by the time all is said and done.  LaBrandon Toefiled and Nick Goings add depth but don’t have any fantasy value. 

Chicago Bears

The Bears have stated that Cedric Benson is their guy but personally, I’m a big Matt Forte fan as I believe he is the better all around running back.  At worst the rookie pushes Benson to be the stud that people think he should be and Forte becomes a nice change of pace back who is also the 3^rd down back.  Adrian Peterson has proven that he’s a capable back up but his fantasy value could be hurt by the presence of Forte, as is the case of Garrett Wolfe, who will see limited carries.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are loaded at RB but are any of them going to have big time fantasy value?  I’m not as quick as some experts to write off Rudi Johnson who missed close to half of 07’ due to injury.  The fact is that Johnson had over 1300 yards and 12 TD’s from 2004-2006.  The Bengals are high on Chris Perry  but 22 games, 3 starts, 73 carries, 337 yards, and 0 TD’s in 4 years doesn’t exactly scream fantasy star to me.  His biggest value is his receiving skills as he had 51 receptions, 328 yards, and 2 TD’s in 2005 but I still won’t believe that he has much fantasy value until I see it.  Kenny Watson proved last season that he’s a viable starter and would be the guy that I would handcuff to Rudi.  DeDe Dorsey is a long shot to have any fantasy value but adds potential NFL depth.  The forgotten man is Kenny Irons who experts where calling Rudi’s replacement last season before suffering a season ending injury before the season even started.  He likely won’t see the field much this season but he is a guy to at least keep an eye on as if he is healthy he could be a potential deep sleeper.

Cleveland Browns

Jamal Lewis is the clear cut #1 running back and it amazes me how much he has fallen off people’s radar since his 2000 yard season in 2003.  The bottom line is that he’s only had one season where he rushed for less than 1000 yards in his career and he rushed for 906.  A career average of 1300 yards and 8 TD’s a season makes him a solid #2 RB option.  Jason Wright won’t see the field much as long as Lewis is healthy and is nothing more than a handcuff for large leagues.

Dallas Cowboys

With Julius Jones departing to Seattle, Marion Barber becomes the clear cut starter and has 1^st or high 2^nd round value.  Rookie Felix Jones is a very interesting prospect who could get around 10 carries a game and with his take it to the house speed he has the potential to make the most of those carries.  He’s worth a middle round pick.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos release of Travis Henry allows Selvin Young to have a breakout season and makes him a valuable fantasy option.  Newly acquired Michael Pittman just became a viable back up who may get a decent amount of carries and has a lot of value in the passing game.  Andre Hall showed last season that he is capable of putting up some fantasy numbers with his 89 yards and a TD in week 11 and 98 yards and a TD in week 12.  The dark horse of the group is rookie Ryan Torain, who may have the best upside of any of the above players and it’s no secret that any running back who sees the field for the Broncos has value.  While Torain isn’t likely to get many carries, keep in mind that Young was an undrafted rookie last season so don’t count Torain out.

Detroit Lions

The Lions decided to part ways with Kevin Jones and did nothing but create one helluva competition between Tatum Bell, Brian Calhoun, Artose Pinner, Aveion Cason, and rookie Kevin Smith.  Tatum Bell has shown flashes of brilliance but has also shown that he may not be a capable every down back.  Calhoun is a potential sleeper assuming he can stay healthy as he may be the most talented of the group.  Pinner and Cason are likely the odd two out with nothing more than an occasional carry here and there but I just don’t see any fantasy production.  My money is on Smith who has the potential to be a big time boom or bust guy.  None of the above should be considered anything more than a #3 RB at best right now but Smith, Bell, and Calhoun are all worthy of a pick and any of the three has potential to be a very good value pick when all is said and done. 

Green Bay Packers

Ryan Grant came out of nowhere last season and tore it up in the 2^nd half of the season, after only having 6 carries for 27 yards and 0 TD’s thru week 7, he ended up with 956 yards and 8 TD’s.  That translates into a #1 fantasy back and one helluva a season in 16 games.  Personally, I’m not totally sold on Grant but the numbers don’t lie so he’s going to be a high draft pick.  Brandon Jackson was supposed to be the starter last season but he just didn’t get it done.  He is a solid handcuff for Grant and has sleeper potential.  DeShawn Wynn and Vernand Morency are both likely nothing more than change of pace backs that have limited fantasy potential.

Houston Texans

The Texans running back situation is a fantasy mess with over the hill Ahman Green as the likely starter, Chris Brown was signed in the off-season and is a more valuable fantasy player in my mind.  Rookie Steve Slaton and 2^nd year man Darius Walker both have sleeper potential and are in the mix.  Chris Taylor could be the odd man out but he also has sleeper potential.  Until somebody steps up as the clear cut starter, nobody will have great fantasy value.  I think Chris Brown has the best value followed by Walker and Slaton.

Indianapolis Colts

Joseph Addai is the clear cut #1 guy in Indy and should be a top five fantasy pick.  Kenton Keith proved last season to be a very valuable back up but the return of Dominic Rhodes likely makes Rhodes a nice handcuff and makes Keith the odd man out with little fantasy value.  Rookie Mike Hart is tough as nails and leaves it all on the field but likely will not have any fantasy value this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will again split carries and both are valuable fantasy options.  Rookie Chauncey Washington may get a carry here and there but has no fantasy value this season.  A healthy Greg Jones may steal a goal line TD here and there but his fantasy value is minimal.

Kansas City Chiefs

Larry Johnson is healthy and while he may not get 400 carries ever again in his career there is no reason to think he can’t return to the top of the fantasy world and since he’s likely to drop below the “big dogs” he could be a steal.  Rookie Jamaal Charles and 2^nd year player Kolby Smith will battle for the back up role and both have the potential to be nice handcuff picks to Johnson.  As long as Charles can learn the offense he has much more talent than Smith and has the potential to be more than just a good handcuff pick that is worthy of a late mid-round pick.

Miami Dolphins

Ronnie Brown was headed for a 1300 yard and 10 TD pace season before he went down with injury after week seven.  He has yet to put up big numbers in three seasons but if he could find a way to stay healthy he is a solid #2 back.  The back up role appears to be Ricky Williams’s to lose as word is he’s in the best shape of his career and is running like a rookie.  If this is indeed the case he is a steal in the middle rounds.  Patrick Cobbs and rookie Jalen Parmele could see some carries but have little to no fantasy value unless Brown goes down and Williams proves to be over-the-hill.

Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson should be one of the first three players taken in most drafts after his monster rookie season.  He should be headed to an even better sophomore season.  Chester Taylor may be the best back up in the league and even with AP getting the bulk of the work Taylor proved last season that he is a solid #3 back who makes the most of his carries.  Maurice Hicks will see some carries but unless both of the big boys go down he’s got no fantasy value.  I would be somewhat concerned about the loss of Tony Richardson as he is one of the best blocking FB’s in the league but the addition of Thomas Tapeh should not be much of a drop off.

New England Patriots

On any other team Laurence Maroney would likely be a top 5-10 fantasy back but the bottom line is that the Patriots love to throw the ball and you just never know when they will decide to run it on a consistent basis.  Maroney still gets enough carries to be a solid #2 RB.  Sammy Morris proved he was a very valuable fantasy back up last season before going down with injury and he should return to that role again this season thus making him a solid late round pick.  Kevin Faulk adds value to the passing game but has limited fantasy value.  Heath Evans and Kyle Eckel will steal some carries and TD’s but have no fantasy value.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints went from having one of the better running games in the league with a healthy Deuce McAllister and utilizing Reggie Bush to the best of his ability but an injury to McAllister forced Bush into a role he was not suited for.  McAllister is healthy but odds are he will never return to what he was once after his 2^nd major surgery.  Bush should be able to return to a change of pace back that is utilized in different formations and has the potential to have a big fantasy season.  Aaron Stecker has proved that he has some potential but he just isn’t special and has limited fantasy value.  The sleeper to watch is Pierre Thomas who could be ready to get enough carries per game to warrant a late round pick.  Don’t be the one that overpays for any of the above players, but taken at the right time they all have potential to be steals.

New York Giants

Brandon Jacobs showed last season he was more than just a touchdown guy, now if he can show that he can stay healthy there is no reason to think he can’t be a solid #2 with 1200 and 10 potential.  Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, and Reuben Droughns are all capable back up’s.  Bradshaw likely has the most fantasy potential but the three splitting carries when Jacobs needs a breather limits the fantasy value for each of them.

New York Jets

The Jets improved their offensive line in the off-season and added Tony Richardson to lead the way which is why I think Thomas Jones has sleeper and breakout written all over him.  He will be looked at in most drafts as a #3 or 4 back but I see him having a #2 type of season.  Don’t let his whopping one TD from last season fool you.  Leon Washington remains the best handcuff option for Jones but there is no proof that he is ready to be a full-time back so his value is still limited.  Both Jesse Chatman and Musa Smith, obtained in the off-season, will see some carries and have some potential fantasy value if Jones were to go down but neither is likely to have anything near an Earnest Graham type of season.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders decided to re-sign Justin Fargas then went ahead and signed Darren McFadden, both should have solid fantasy seasons but I’m thinking Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor here so look McFadden first and Fargas second.  LaMont Jordan was headed for a big time season last year before getting injured and finding himself in the doghouse.  I have no idea why he is still in Oakland but as long as he is I look for no fantasy value out of him.  Michael Bush will get some carries but I’d be surprised if he has any fantasy value but somebody will over pay for him.

Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Westbrook is a top five pick who could end up as the #1 fantasy back in certain leagues that put extra value on receiving statistics.  The back up role will be between Correll Buckhalter, Tony Hunt, and Lorenzo Booker.  Look for Hunt to potentially be a goal-line back which gives him some value in later rounds.  I don’t see much value out of the rest of the guys.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The past three seasons Willie Parker has rushed for an average of 1337 yards but aside from his breakout 13 TD’s in 2006 he only had 4 in 2005 and 2 last season.  Fast Willie is still a viable fantasy option but it appears his 2006 TD numbers may have been a fluke and he will lose carries and possibly his starting role eventually to rookie Rashard Mendenhall who is not likely to have a big season but is at worst a nice handcuff for Parker.  Najeh Davenport is a capable back that rushed for 499 yards and 5 TD’s last season but will likely lost carries to Mendenhall.  He could still be used in the red zone and may be worth a late round pick.  Mewelde Moore has big time speed but he likely will only be used as a change of pace back here and there and isn’t likely to have any fantasy value.

San Digo Chargers

LT is still the likely top pick in most drafts for at least one more season and there is no reason to think he won’t put up typical LT numbers.  With Michael Turner gone to Atlanta the question is who will take over as the backup.  Darren Sproles is a firecracker who has the potential to take it to the house any time he touches the ball but his carries will likely be limited as he just isn’t anything more than a change-of-pace back.  He is still a valuable later round pick.  Rookie RB/FB Jacob Hester out of LSU may be LT’s primary backup and while he isn’t likely to be in the caliber of Turner he does have some handcuff value in the later rounds.  No other back looks to have any fantasy value.

San Francisco 49ers

After putting up 1695 yards and 8 TD’s in 2006 Frank Gore struggled with injuries and an inept offense while only putting up 1102 yards and 5 TD’s.  Gore has all the tools to put up numbers similar to 2006 and his receiving skills give him added value.  He should be seen as a solid #1 back.  Michael Robinson has shown little fantasy value the past two seasons but DeShaun Foster should be the primary backup and is a solid handcuff to Gore in the late rounds. 

Seattle Seahawks

Shaun Alexander is gone but the RB position is still a jumbled mess with Maurice Morris, Julius Jones, and T.J. Duckett all likely to share carries.  I look for Morris to be the starter with Jones playing the Marion Barber role in Seattle rather than the Julius Jones role (if that makes sense) but I wouldn’t look for anything close to Barber type numbers out of Jones.  Duckett actually may end up as the best fantasy option based only on his red zone ability.  I could see Morris, Jones, and Duckett all going in the same round and I think all of them have some value but don’t look for any of them to be anything more than a #3 back.

St. Louis Rams

Steven Jackson is in a contract year and is primed for a monster season and should be one of the first players taken in every fantasy draft.  Antonio Pittman showed some promise last season and is not a bad handcuff pick for Jackson.  Travis Minor has yet to be re-signed and even if he is he has no real fantasy value.  Brian Leonard has some potential fantasy value based on his receiving skills, but it is still to be seen just how much the Rams plan on using him in the offense making him a risky pick.  Rookie Yvenson Bernard could be a deep sleeper if Jackson were to go down but he is still a long shot to see many carries.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs were all set at RB going into the season last year until Cadillac Williams went down with a torn patella tendon.  Luckily Earnest Graham stepped in and rushed for 898 yards and 10 TD’s in 10 starts.  Williams is likely to be put on the PUP list and it would not be a surprise if he were to miss the entire season (if not his career) due to the severity of his injury.  Graham is currently holding out, leaving old man Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett as the top two backs until Graham ends his hold out.  As long as Williams is out Graham should be considered a solid fantasy option.  Dunn and Bennett are likely to share carries as the primary backup thus limiting both of their fantasy values but they are still better than a number of late round RB’s you can obtain.  Rookie Cory Boyd is the sleeper of the bunch and may actually be the most complete player given Dunn's age.  If Graham were to hold out it’s not out of the possibility that Boyd could end up as the starter but more than likely he will have no fantasy value this season.

Tennessee Titans

LenDale White threw up 1110 yards and 7 TD’s last season despite playing the entire season with a torn meniscus so the sky is the limit this season for the big guy.  Rookie Chris Johnson runs a 4.24 and should be a very valuable change-of-pace handcuff pick for White owners.  Johnson has the potential to develop into more than just a handcuff back at some point this season.  Chris Henry was a 2^nd rd pick last season but he is a long shot to have any fantasy value again this season. 

Washington Redskins

Clinton Portis is a clear cut #1 back even though he doesn’t seem to receive the same respect as other “big dog” RB’s.  Portis is a stud, end of story!  All the guy has done since coming into the league in 2002 is rush for 1508, 1591, 1315, 1516, 523, and 1262 yards with the 523 yards coming in seven starts.  Throw in TD seasons of 15, 14, 5, 11, 7, and 11 with the 7 coming in only 7 starts and there is no reason why he shouldn’t be a first round pick.  Never mind the fact that he’s going to get you another 30-40 receptions, 300-400 yards and a TD or two and Portis is a steal anywhere outside of the top five, despite what seems like constant nagging injuries to the guy.  By the way he’s only 26!  Ladell Betts is a solid handcuff but he has very limited red zone potential so even if Portis were to go down he isn’t likely to put up anything better than #3 or 4 RB numbers.  No other back has any fantasy potential.

 

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